KEJATUHAN RINGGIT TERBURUK DI ASIA?

KEJATUHAN RINGGIT

TERBURUK DI ASIA?

Dr Muzahet Masruri

Kejatuhan nilai matawang bagi kebanyakan negara di dunia ketika ini adalah disebabkan oleh fenomena global. Di Asia, negara yang mengalami kejatuhan nilai matawang paling buruk ialah Malaysia.

Kejatuhan nilai matawang bermakna nilai ringgit menurun berbanding dengan nilai matawang utama dunia. Selalunya perbandingan dibuat dengan USD kerana matawang ini paling banyak digunakan dalam transaksi perdagangan antarabangsa.

Nilai ringgit jatuh ke paras RM4.44/USD pada 22 November 2016 berbanding RM3.80/USD pada tahun-tahun sebelumnya. Nilainya semakin menurun kepada RM4.47/USD pada 23 Disember 2016 dan dijangka akan terus menurun.

Kejatuhan nilai ringgit ada kebaikannya

Kita selalu mendengar kenyataan di TV, media elektronik dan cetak supaya rakyat tidak perlu bimbang kerana kejatuhan ringgit mempunyai kesan positif kepada ekonomi Malaysia. Antaranya adalah seperti berikut:

1. Harga barangan eksport yang dikeluarkan di Malaysia akan menjadi murah dan kompetitif. Kesannya, permintaan bagi barangan keluaran negara akan meningkat dan menyumbang kepada peningkatan pendapatan eksport.

2. Barangan yang diimport dari negara luar akan menjadi lebih mahal dan permintaannya akan berkurangan. Kesannya akan mengurangkan perbelanjaan negara bagi barangan import.

3. Dengan peningkatan pendapatan eksport dan pengurangan perbelanjaan import akan menyebabkan 'imbangan perdagangan’ (terms of trade) akan menjadi positif. Pada masa yang sama ia juga akan mengurangkan ‘defisit akaun semasa’.

4. Kejatuhan nilai ringgit akan menarik lebih ramai pelancong asing datang ke Malaysia kerana kos sara hidup yang murah, seperti kos perjalanan, pengangkutan, hotel, restauran dan perkhidmatan lain yang secara relatifnya murah. Kesannya, ia akan meningkatkan pendapatan negara dalam sektor ini. 

5. Kejatuhan nilai ringgit juga akan mengurangkan ringgit dibelanjakan di luar negara. Ini kerana bilangan rakyat Malaysia yang melancong ke luar negara dan pelajar-pelajar yang menuntut di luar negara akan berkurangan disebabkan kos yang mahal. Dengan itu, aliran keluar ringgit ke luar negara akan berkurangan dan bekalan ringgit dalam negara akan stabil.

Benarkah kejatuhan ringgit menguntungkan Malaysia?

Daripada mata kasar, kenyataan-kenyataan tersebut ada kebenarannya. Tetapi realitinya ia tidak semudah seperti yang dijangkakan. Antara sebabnya:

1. Barangan eksport Malaysia akan murah dan kompetitif kalau hanya ringgit sahaja yang mengalami kejatuhan nilai matawang. Tetapi kalau kebanyakan negara lain juga mengalami kejatuhan matawang, barangan mereka juga akan menjadi murah dan kompetitif. Dalam hal ini, eksport barangan Malaysia tidak semestinya meningkat.

2. Bayaran kepada import negara tidak semestinya akan menurun. Ini kerana banyak sektor ekonomi dalam negara, seperti industri dan perkilangan di negara ini yang memerlukan barangan modal dan barangan pengantara yang perlu diimport, seperti komponen, alat ganti, aksesori dan lain-lain untuk mengeluarkan ‘final product’ mereka. Cuba bayangkan industri pengeluar seperti Proton dan Perodua, berapa banyak bahagian komponen yang perlu diimport untuk mengeluarkan sebuah kereta?

3. Bayaran kepada import negara juga tidak semestinya menurun kerana rakyat Malaysia bergantung kepada sebahagian besar barang makanan dan minuman yang diimport bagi keperluan isirumah. Cuba lihat di dapur kita, lebih 50% daripada barangan adalah diimport. Tetapi kita tidak akan ‘sacrifice’ untuk tidak makan sambal tumis disebabkan cili kering, bawang besar, bawang kecil, bawang putih dan rempah ratus itu adalah diimport dari India dan harganya telah meningkat.

4. Begitu juga dengan industri pelancongan, kalaupun meningkat mungkin dalam peratusan yang sangat kecil. Pelancong yang berfikir hendak datang ke Malaysia bukan semata-mata disebabkan nilai ringgit turun. Lagipun lebih 50% daripada 26 juta pelancong pada 2014 yang dicatat oleh Kementerian Pelancongan adalah warga Singapura. Ramai mereka datang menginap semalam dua di hartanah yang mereka beli di Malaysia, guna petrol murah, makan-makan, guna tandas awam percuma di lebuhraya, kemudian balik. Selebihnya adalah pelancong Indonesia (10%) dan China (6%). 

Kesimpulan

Nampak pada zahirnya bahawa realitinya, penurunan nilai ringgit lebih meninggalkan kesan negatif daripada positif ke atas ekonomi Malaysia ketika ini. Yang pasti ialah kejatuhan ringgit akan memberi tekanan kepada peningkatan inflasi dan kenaikan harga barang-barang yang sering menjadi rungutan pengguna. Yang lebih ditakuti ialah dalam keadaan ekonomi negara yang lesu dan ketiadaan usaha-usaha drastik bagi memulihkan ekonomi, kejatuhan ringgit akan melunturkan keyakinan pelabur untuk melabur di negara ini. Ini kerana kejatuhan nilai matawang yang ketara adalah antara indikator yang menunjukkan keadaan ketakstabilan ekonomi sesebuah negara.

Dr.Muzahet Masruri.  Ph.D (Economics),  University of East Anglia, United Kingdom.

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The Neglected ‘Think-tank’ (Part 2) - Response to the current slow economic growth

6 August 2016

Special interview with Dr. Muzahet

Continued from  "The Neglected Think-tank" (Part 1) 

Response to the current slow economic growth

A few days back, I managed to bring my Dad for tea at one of his favorite ‘makan spot’ in Putrajaya, the café at Kelab Tasik Putrajaya. We ordered the usual, dad’s favorite combo there was ‘mee goreng mamak’ and ‘teh panas’. While waiting the food to be served, I posed a few questions on the current economic situation. He seemed quite reluctant to respond at first, but then one question struck his attention:

Azzad: Dad, you mentioned earlier that measures taken by MTEN during 1997/98 economic crisis managed to salvage our economy just within a year.!! Why don’t we use the same measures to rescue our economy from the current prolonged slow growth now?

Dad: You must be joking Son! If you were a doctor would you give the same prescription for patients suffering from diabetes and those who suffer from cancer? And with that prescription you’re expecting both patients to recover from their illness within a year!

Azzad: You mean we cannot use the same prescription.?!

Dad: Definitely not.!! Because the root cause of the problems are different! The 1997/98 crisis was regional in nature caused by currency speculators which seriously affected our banking system and finally spread to other sectors in the economy. Whereas, the 2008 crisis was originated from the subprime mortgage in the US, this affected the international banking system and finally became a global phenomenon.

Kelab Tasik Putrajaya Open Area

Azzad: What do you mean ‘regional’ and ‘global’ phenomena?

Dad: ‘Regional’ means only Asian countries were affected by the crisis. In particular, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan, while the rest of the world were not. ‘Global’ phenomenon means almost all countries in the world were affected and experienced slow growth performance in their economy, especially the advanced countries in the US and European Union.

Azzad: Are there any policy implications in terms of measures to be taken by the Malaysian government between these two scenarios?

Dad: Of course they are! Especially the revenue from export. We are an ‘open-economy’ or ‘market economy’ where our revenue from exports accounts for about 130% of our GDP, which is huge. The implication is that, the economic contractions in other countries globally will reduce demand of our export and this will upset the growth performance in our domestic economy.

Kelab Tasik Putrajaya Outdoors Open Area

Azzad: Since we have no control over the world economy, there’s obviously not much that we can do, except wait for the global economy to recover. Right?!

Dad: Indeed, you’re right son, like many other people think. But the reality is that the general public is beginning to feel the pinch – downsizing economic activities, closing down businesses, layoffs, retrenchments, shorter work week (4 instead of 5 days a week), etc.  That’s if we talk about the business among the self-employed. Other sectors are expected to be affected too, especially manufacturing, services sector, housing and property development.

Azzad: So, what’s our option now?

Dad: We cannot solely be dependent on external market to safeguard our continued growth performance. Besides export, we should take necessary actions to stimulate our domestic economy by raising consumption and investment, especially from the private sector.

Food at Kelab Tasik Putrajaya

Azzad: I thought the Government has done something in stimulating domestic economy and to increase consumption, such as Bantuan Rakyat 1 Malaysia (BR1M).

Dad: Yes, you are right. The stimulus packages introduced in 2012 Budget, the Economic Transformation Program (ETP), National Key Economic Areas(NKEAs) and low cost housing programs, are among the examples. I think the Government should continue to use this approach. Our previous experience shows that these stimulus packages were very effective in managing the economy during the crisis because they create ‘chain effects’ or ‘multiplier effects’ to increase economic activities in other sectors.

Azzad: What do you mean by ‘multiplier effects’? How does it work?

Dad: For example, when we develop low cost houses, we were actually creating demand for other goods and services – cement, wood, tiles, steel, manpower, workers, draftsmen, engineers etc. Similarly, when the houses were completed you wouldn't move into an empty house. You need new lighting, fans, refrigerators, carpets, sofa, bed, mattress and etc. In such a way that all the related industries and businesses react and create positive impacts to the overall domestic economy, that’s how ‘multiplier effects’ work.

View of Prime Minister's Office from Kelab Tasik Putrajaya

Azzad: Dad, what do you think about BR1M?

Dad: Son! If you were given RM500 cash in hand, how will you spend the money?

Azzad: Well if it was me, I would just save it up in my ASB account. But then again talking about stimulating domestic economy I’d probably buy some new clothes or shoes or a new watch and the balance go for makan-makan!

Dad: Hahaha.!! Do you think your spending will help to stimulate the affected sectors in the economy?

Azzad: Well, to tell you the truth I’m not really sure.

Dad: The intention of BRIM is to increase the real income of people, in particular those who are in the low-income group. By giving additional cash we actually increase their purchasing power so that they can spend for their basic needs, such as food, water, clothing, shelter, education, and healthcare.

MTEN approach was different, we didn’t spend money by giving cash to the people. Rather, the money was spent in the form of projects or programs which could create economic activities and stimulate the affected sectors through ‘multiplier effects’ or ‘chain effects’, explained above, which I feel was the effective way of stimulating domestic economy during the crisis.

Azzad: What else should the Government do to increase economic growth?
Dad: I think to gain support, the rakyat should be informed of what the Government is doing now in managing the economy during this difficult time. In those days, the public were informed through various channels of decisions made by MTEN as a ‘think-tank’. As a result, the Government received full support from the public and they were marching in the same rhythm and tune. As it is now, it seems the Government and the rakyat are marching in different rhythms and tunes

Dr. Muzahet Masruri, Ph.D (Economics),  University of East Anglia, United Kingdom

READ:  "The Neglected Think-tank" (Part 1) 

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After 33 Years Serving the Government

After 33 Years Serving the Government

Azzad Muzahet

Dad retired from Government Service around 7 years ago. Before retiring from his 33 year tenure with the Government of Malaysia (1977-2009), he managed to buy a house in Putrajaya. Among the perks of being a government servant is the 25% discount allotted for purchase of a house under the Civil Servant Reserve Unit (CSRU). Back then a Super Link House at Precint 16 cost around RM500k-RM600k before the 25% discount. According to him, that was among the best decisions that he has ever made and now he resides peacefully in the Federal Territory of Putrajaya.  Dad’s the President of Persatuan Penduduk in that area, the position he’s been holding for the past 3 years.

AJK PPSL Presint 16 sesi 2016/2019 Credits: Myputrajayanews

I still remember the days after he retired from the corporate world back in 2013, after 4 years with Puncak Niaga Sdn Berhad as an Executive Director. He would wake up early go out for breakfast then come home read the newspaper and watch TV for a while before looking for things to do around the house.

Interview: The importance of maintaining the environment as a source of clean water

Almost everything that needed fixing was fixed, all the bonsai trees and other plants outside were neatly trimmed and the cars were washed quite frequently. Dad’s favorite question was “lepas ni nak buat apa..” what are we going to do next?

Neatly trimmed bonsai trees

Obviously he needed something to keep him busy besides the house chores, so I suggested to him “Dad, why don’t you share your experience with others..?” Write a book maybe or go lecture some students someplace. He acted immediately upon my suggestion; write a book it is Son!! Writing a book can take for ages to finish, but I didn’t know publishing one could take like forever.  He finished writing his book in a matter of months but unfortunately it has not been published yet, it’s still with the publisher going through countless number of committees since last year. Hope it’s going to be published soon!! I’ll let you know when it’s out.!!

Dr. Muzahet, Ph.D (Economics), University of East Anglia, UK

While he was busy writing his book one day, out of nowhere Dad said, “I’m thinking of sharing my knowledge and experience that I’ve gathered during my working days in the public and private sectors, with others”. “What do you think..?” he asked me. “Well you’re basically doing it right now writing the book..” I said. “I mean in another way that I can really engage the audience, you know like passing on my experience to the younger generation type of thing..” continued dad. “If you’re thinking of becoming a lecturer then go for it dad, I know you’ll do an excellent job at teaching ..”. God blessed, dad has been a part-time lecturer of Managerial Economics for the MBA Program at Putra Business School since 2014. It's great to see him being occupied with something that he's really passionate about.   

Managerial Economics Class, Putra Business School 2014

Dr. Muzahet's Profile @ Putra Business School

READ: Special Interview with Dr.Muzahet – The Neglected Think-Tank

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Invest Today for Dividends Tomorrow

No matter what age you are or even your level of employment or economic position, it may be a good idea to start preparing now, even in an inadequate way, for eventual financial security. Most people feel they need every Ringgit they make to get by each month from one paycheck to the next. While this may be true for some, there are others who misspend significant amounts on insignificant things. They could be shelving that money away into an investment account that, over time, could lead to huge savings and rewards which equals to a comfortable retirement.

Bursa Malaysia Head Office in Kuala Lumpur 

It isn’t hard to get started. All you need is RM100 to RM500 to open an investment account and anywhere from RM25 to RM50 monthly to continue building your stock or mutual fund portfolio. In fact, a young adult aged 20 could deposit RM2000 and then not another dime. In forty years or so with the power of value investing and compounding interest he or she might have tens of thousands of Ringgit. The stock market (Bursa Malaysia) has followed fairly predictable patterns since its inception in the 1970s in Kuala Lumpur. Although historic events like the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis and 2008 global financial crisis have impacted its activity, the gains and losses remain fairly consistent, with most investors earning a predictable return on their investments.

Of course, no one can entirely predict what the future holds, or whether the pattern will continue. We should not invest more money than we can afford to lose - in case the world economy crashes one of these days. Invest Today for Dividends Tomorrow with steady deposits that continue to compound and earn interest over time, a sensible and wise investor can substantially increase the amount of money going for retirement or a dream vacation at some time in the future.

Inside Bursa Malaysia's Head Office

If you are thinking to Invest Today for Dividends Tomorrow you can open an investment trading account with Bursa Malaysia, start by doing a little online browsing for more information. Open a CDS (Central Depository System) account with Authorized Depository Agents, i.e. stockbroking companies such as CIMB Investment Bank, RHB Investment Bank, HWANGDBS Investment Bank and others. Begin reading your newspaper’s financial pages for details about the latest stock prices and market trends. Do a little paper trading by following the daily stock news for starters. Instead of actually purchasing stock, work it out on a piece of paper by pretending to buy a certain amount of stock for the specified price and then watching to see how it performs over the following week. Chart your gains or losses to figure out whether your stock deal was successful. If you do this for several months, you will soon learn to understand more about the stock market and how to buy and sell like the pros.

Even if you are on a tight budget, try to set aside some money to open an investment account from any godsends that come your way from job bonuses, inheritances, or cash gifts. Some people set aside their annual job raise, or a portion of it, as part of their investment strategy. Then, as your budget becomes looser with lower commitments or grown-up kids, you may be able to start having a standard monthly amount deducted automatically from your paycheck and deposited into your investment account. This could take the form of a money market fund, a mutual fund portfolio, or individual stock shares.

It may be a good idea to harness your financial education or sign up for a financial planning seminar. Success may be just a few years away if you start today and plan right.


Most of the info and pictures are taken from google or wikipedia and have been inspired through reading books, articles and other materials that are related to the topic - If there is any error or confusion AzzadDrm will not be held liable or responsible.

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